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Thursday, 15 August 2013

Two Master Strategists Armed With Arrows Can Rajnath Singh Outwit Narendra Modi?

Two Master Strategists Armed With Arrows Can Rajnath Singh Outwit Narendra Modi?

Publish Date : July 29th, 2013 Print Article |608 views
It would be not at all wrong to say that presently Rajnath Singh is using Narendra Modi only  and only  for the polarisation of Hindu votes. Rajnath Singh, who is presenting himself as a liberal leader these days, knows that by keeping Narendra Modi at the centre of the election strategy of the BJP, one will get to see tremendous polarisation in the politics of the country. Particularly so in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, where there is a large population of minorities and which decides the results of the Lok Sabha elections. 

If you think that Rajnath Singh made Narendra Modi in charge of the BJP election Campaign Committee with a great deal of magnanimity and eased the way for his candidature as Prime Minister, then you are making a big mistake. In fact, this move of Rajnath Singh was designed to remove all obstacles from his own path. Rajnath Singh very cleverly laid out his checkerboard and using Modi as a pretext, sacrificed Lal Krishna Advani. In such a situation, Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley voluntarily stepped back. In the name of Narendra Modi upheavals took place and the NDA scattered, but Rajnath remained silent. And now, when everything is happening according to Rajnath Singh’s intentions, he is engaged in undercutting Narendra Modi in an extremely clever manner.
In fact, Rajnath Singh is trying to establish himself in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s place because he thinks he possesses oratorical skills like those of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and like him, is acceptable to all in the party. It is in this game of acceptance that he wants to defeat Narendra Modi. His idea of fighting elections from Lucknow is part of this strategy. For the success of his plans, Rajnath Singh is not only engaging skillfully in political intricacies, but he is also taking help from pandits and astrologers. Through ritualistic ‘pujas’ and mantras, attempts are also being made to turn the political situation in the country in his favour. Calculations based on the stars and planets are also being used to influence the possibility that Lok Sabha elections should be held in November this year itself, before their due time. For this, a search is on for an issue which can be blown up in the Monsoon session of Parliament due to which Parliament can be dissolved or an under pressure UPA Government can make the announcement of elections.
And all this so that Narendra Modi, who is being seen as the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate, does not get enough time to rally people to his name or that a strategy can be made by his team to ensure his victory. If general elections are held in November, according to Rajnath Singh’s plans and intentions, then certainly, due to paucity of time Narendra Modi will not be able to succeed in changing his image of being a divisive leader which came into being after the Gujarat riots. Even if the NDA does reach the position of being within reach of any kind of power, it is unlikely that its allies and the NDA will come to a consensus over the name of Narendra Modi. In such an indeterminate situation of ferment, it will be very easy for Rajnath Singh to suddenly put his name forward for the coronation. For people who have doubts that this could happen, it would be fitting to remember in this context how it was in a similar sudden situation of ferment that Rajnath Singh suddenly became the BJP National President.
How deftly Rajnath Singh is cutting at the roots of Narendra Modi even while standing by him can be assessed from the fact that with Rajnath Singh chanting Modi’s name, the stature of Modi, now in charge of the BJP’s Campaign Committee, has suddenly become bigger than that of the party, whereas this has never happened before in the BJP. In the history of the BJP, no leader has ever been given the command of an election campaign committee in such a hasty and hurried manner and that too almost a year before the elections are due. On this issue, neither did the party President or the party Parliamentary Board ever do things in such a hurry as it has been a sort of BJP tradition to decide on this responsibility four-five months before the elections. However, most of the party people have now begun to understand the implications behind Rajnath Singh’s purpose. Certainly, the top leaders of the BJP have understood that Rajnath Singh now thinks he is Atal Bihari Vajpayee. That Lucknow from where Atalji won five times, Rajnath Singh now wants that place to be in his name. And yet, keeping in mind the advice of his pandits and astrologers there are also doubts in his mind. According to the calculations of his astrologers if instead of contesting from Lucknow, he contests the elections from Ambedkar Nagar, he will register a resounding victory.
Rajnath Singh understands very well that the country’s next Prime Minister will be solely decided by Uttar Pradesh and he also believes that who other than him can be a better candidate from Uttar Pradesh for the post of Prime Minister. Although Narendra Modi too desired fighting elections from Lucknow, Rajnath Singh induced him to fight the upcoming Lok Sabha elections from Varanasi, citing Hinduism and it being a city of religion as inducements. Those people who know Rajnath Singh well are aware that he is adept at removing a thorn with a thorn. When Rajnath Singh was the Surface Transport Minister at the Centre, even then he had sidelined Kesarinath Tripathi, Kalraj Mishra and Lalji Tandon in Uttar Pradesh and cornered the Chief Minister’s post. When Rajnath Singh was the Uttar Pradesh BJP President, then he created an atmosphere in which Kalyan Singh directly revolted against Atal Bihari Vajpayee and quit the party.
Therefore, it would be not at all wrong to say that presently Rajnath Singh is using Narendra Modi only  and only  for the polarisation of Hindu votes. Rajnath Singh, who is presenting himself as a liberal leader these days, knows that by keeping Narendra Modi at the centre of the election strategy of the BJP, one will get to see tremendous polarisation in the politics of the country. Particularly so in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, where there is a large population of minorities and which decides the results of the Lok Sabha elections. This polarisation will prove to be crucial there and then the next Lok Sabha elections will be fought on the issue of secularism and then in such a situation, the secular face which will be seen in the BJP will be that of Rajnath Singh. Whereas Modi will not be able to benefit from his image of being a ‘development man’. And these conditions will also be very very pleasing for the Congress, because the Congress too, reeling under corruption, inflation and scandals and scams and allegations, will try and hide all its ‘offenses’ under the protective shield of secularism. Another possibility is that if Narendra Modi loses the elections from Varanasi because of this polarisation and the cultural equations of Varanasi, then it will be even easier for Rajnath Singh to stake his claim on the candidature for the post of Prime Minister.
Actually, these days Rajnath Singh is not doing something beneficial for Modi by chanting his name. Instead, by doing so, he is providing more wind to his opponents. These days Rajnath Singh is neither speaking on the Ram temple issue nor is he supporting orthodox Hinduism. On issues connected with the minorities too, the attitude of Rajnath Singh appears to be flexible and pliable, many samples of which were seen in recent days. This means that Rajnath Singh is furthering his ambitions in a very well calculated and seasoned manner.
When Narendra Modi’s henchman Amit Shah goes to Uttar Pradesh and tosses up the Ram temple issue, Rajnath remains silent. At the same time, Rajnath Singh goes to a seminar connected with the minorities organised in Jaipur and displays his flexible and pliable attitude towards the Muslims. Rajnath Singh is aware that the BJP’s vote base amongst the people is continuously slipping, and holding it steady is a challenge even for him. Protecting himself, he has thrown Narendra Modi into a virtual test by fire by setting him the task of expanding the scope of the NDA. By lauding Narendra Modi and describing him as the party’s strongest leader, how cleverly Rajnath Singh has trapped him in such indigestible situations, that even Narendra Modi cannot guess at present.
Please note : so far, the BJP has been in power at the Centre three times, but it has never been able to get a majority in the Lok Sabha. It could not go above two hundred seats. After 2004, the NDA has been scattering. One by one, its alliance partners are leaving the alliance. Now, only the Shiv Sena, the Haryana Janhit Congress, the Assom Gana Parishad and the Akali Dal are still with the BJP. It is evident that in addition to maintaining relations with their old partners, Modi will have to work very hard to search for new associates. From former partners Naveen Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee there are no signs at present of a possible return to the fold. On top of that, the BJP has lost power in Karnataka, Himachal and Uttarakhand. Even if we calculate on the basis of Lok Sabha seats, in Haryana 10, in West Bengal 42, in Orissa 21, in Andhra Pradesh 42, 20 in Kerala and in Tamil Nadu 39, i.e. on a total of 174 seats the BJP presence is zero. In the North Eastern States and in Assam too the presence of the party is nominal. All these factors combine into such a ‘chakravyuh’ for Modi, transcending which cannot be termed impossible but which will certainly be terribly difficult. By patting Narendra Modi on his back and appearing to walk in step with him, how very difficult Rajnath Singh is making it for him – a sampling of this can be seen in Rajnath Singh’s statement. Rajnath Singh states that before the elections there is no plan by the BJP to go in for alliances. Now, without making alliances, under the leadership of Modi, what number of seats will the BJP be able to touch?
The Sangh too is more or less familiar with this, yet it is still not coming out openly in favour of Modi. The BJP’s first Government at the Centre lasted for only thirteen days. It could not cobble together the magical figure of a majority, even though it had with it a liberal face like that of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The second time too the BJP Government’s term lasted just thirteen months. The third time, the BJP Government ruled for its full term, but had only 183 seats of its own. In 2009, when the BJP contested elections under the leadership of Lal Krishna Advani, it had a total of 137 seats it had won in 2004, but even then the BJP could manage to win only 116 seats in the Lok Sabha. It is evident from this that very large challenges are looming before Narendra Modi — even in a situation like the last time when it had to be content with contesting 365 seats out of 543 and leave the remainder to its alliance partners. Even if an alliance is cobbled together, taking the number from 200 to the magical figure of 272 will be a very difficult task.
In such a situation, the question easily arises that how will the party get seats, how will the remaining MPs be ‘organised or ‘managed’ and how the necessary consensus will be formed on the name of Modi? Assuming that if 180 seats are won under the leadership of Modi, will it be possible to form a coalition Government? Will Nitish Kumar, N. Chandrababu Naidu, Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik, who turned away from Modi in the greed for Muslim votes, come back? Rajnath Singh is playing his hand in the name of Modi only after making the complete calculations of the electoral mathematics. Recently, while holding a discussion with a very close astrologer friend, Rajnath Singh said that in West Bengal, the North-East and in South India, the BJP is not a great power. How will Amit Shah, the special person sent by Narendra Modi to be in-charge of Uttar Pradesh be able to change the ground realities of areas under the control of the SP and the BSP in such little time. In such a situation, the battle will become very difficult for Modi.
A top BJP leader says that actually, Rajnath Singh has proposed Modi’s name only after making all the additions and subtractions, because he doesn’t at all want that the BJP’s failure should come on his head. If the BJP is defeated, the blot should be on Modi’s name. Troubled by these doubts and apprehensions, the Sangh has for the first time interfered directly in the electoral politics of the BJP and has also given clear indications that no worker or leader can be bigger than the party, even if it is Narendra Modi. As of today, the Sangh wants to run the BJP according to its calculations. Rajnath Singh has the trust of the Sangh, because out of all the BJP’s ‘big’ leaders, he is the only one who has never parted ways from the Sangh. It is not as if Modi is totally ignorant of all these things. He has a good idea of the challenges he faces. Without making much noise, he has started changing his image. The Common Civil Code, Ayodhya and other contentious issues like Article 370 are no longer part of Modi’s speeches. He went on a ‘Sadbhavna yatra’ in Gujarat. He is making a Muslim Vision documentary. He is also organising a Muslim Sammelan. He wants to create a mixed face of Hinduism and liberalism. No matter what the apprehensions expressed about him, Modi himself appears to be very confident about himself. He is attempting to create a political wave in every way, while on the other hand Rajnath Singh is very calmly engaged in ‘giving air’ to Modi’s name. Rajnath Singh knows that the mathematics is not in favour of the BJP. If the BJP is defeated then, and if it barely scrapes into a position to form a Government with the support of allied parties then, in both these situations Modi becoming the Prime Minister seems to be difficult. And in both the situations, the way ahead for Rajnath Singh to become Prime Minister will be easier. In this way, between Rajnath Singh and Narendra Modi the story of the turtle and the rabbit will be repeated. Now it is to be seen who will prove to be the turtle and who will prove to be the rabbit.
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